105/09/26(一)下午2:00國立台灣大學洪啟修教授演講公告

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財務專題研討(二)課程 演講公告

 

演講者:國立台灣大學  洪啟修  教授

演講時間:105年9月26日(一)下午2:00開始

演講地點:社管大樓SC416教室

演講題目:Dividend Policy and Managerial Overreaction to Trends in Profitability Growths and Declines

 

內容摘要:

  We argue that the decision to pay (or not to pay) dividends stems from managers' overreaction arising from extrapolation in patterns of increasing (decreasing) firm earnings. We show that, in aggregate, dividend decisions strongly depend on the aggregate rate of firms experiencing past earnings growths (declines), which reflects the time-varying market-wide managerial optimism (pessimism). At firm-level managerial overreaction has strong effects on dividend policy: firms tend to initiate or increase (omit or decrease) dividends having experienced earnings growths (declines) over years, while their future earnings decline (grow). We also investigate relative managerial overreaction that adds to the overall market-wide tendency. Firms with past earnings growths (declines) above (below) average are more likely to initiate or to increase (to omit or to decrease) dividends. Moreover, managers not only overreact to trends in profitability but also to similar trends in sales and free cash flows. Further, the effect of managerial overreaction on dividends is distinct from and stronger than the effect of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) overconfidence.

 


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